POWER SECTOR IN NIGERIA SIZE & SHARE ANALYSIS - GROWTH TRENDS & FORECASTS (2023 - 2028)

 The country's thermal power generation share was 80% in 2021. It is also expected to have a significant share during the forecast period due to Nigeria’s continuous and reliable gas supply to power the gas-fired power plants.

In January 2021, the federal government planned to add six coal-based power generating plants to the existing ones by 2037. It also fabricated plans to add nine gas-fired power plants, making it a total of 15 power plants, expected to be operational by 2037.

In February 2020, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation and the United States Trade and Development Agency signed a USD 1.1 million deal to construct gas-based NNPC Abuja Independent Power Project. The 1350 MW plant is expected to be constructed by the EPC companies General Electric and CMEC (China Machinery Engineering Corporation). The gas supply will be provided by the proposed pipeline, Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK). Due to such factors, the thermal power market is expected to boost the power generation sector during the forecast period.

    The Nigerian power market is expected to register a CAGR of approximately 13% during the forecast period (2022-2027). The COVID-19 pandemic has positively impacted the distribution of electricity in Nigeria. For instance, in Lagos, Nigeria's largest city, 43% of total electricity demand comes from the residential sector. Under the lockdown scenario, there was a sharp increase in residential electricity demand by up to 49%, resulting in power distribution companies facing a shift in electricity demand and changes in energy load allocation. This factor called for more EPC or modification projects in the power infrastructure. The Nigerian power market is largely driven by favorable government policies and a growing inclination toward privatization of the power sector, which can draw more investment in the sector. However, the absence of proper infrastructure in the power sector, with a lack of skilled local labor, is expected to hinder the power market in the country.

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